国际投资者重新看好中国经济
Investors walk back from the edge on China, but big risks remain
The terracotta army of China bulls is back. It is more than a year since the Chinese economy started to show a sharp turnround. At that point, investors were braced for an economic “hard landing” and a currency devaluation. The turnround since then had its most direct effect on the stocks of the western companies most exposed to China for their revenues, and on the prices of commodities that China buys.
看好中国的“兵马俑”又回来了。中国经济出现急剧好转迹象已有一年多时间。当时投资者正准备迎接经济“硬着陆”和货币贬值。自那以来中国经济明显好转，受影响最直接的是收入最依赖中国市场的西方公司的股票，以及中国购买的大宗商品的价格。
That sentiment has at last reached international investors. Last month, for the first time in three years, China enjoyed net inflows of capital, rather than outflows, according to the International Institute of Finance. China continues to dominate inflows to emerging markets. EM stocks are up 41 per cent since last January’s lows. Meanwhile, EM bond issuance hit an all-time record in this quarter while their currencies also enjoyed a great rebound, as fears recede that an “America First” US would inflict damage on global trade.
这种情绪最终传递到国际投资者。国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)的数据显示，2月，中国出现了资本净流入而非净流出，这是3年来的首次。中国继续主导了新兴市场的资金流入。新兴市场股票与去年1月的低点相比上涨了41%。与此同时，新兴市场债券发行量在本季度创出历史最高纪录，而它们的货币也大幅升值，原因是对奉行“美国优先”立场的美国破坏全球贸易的担忧消退。
These numbers ratify in cold dollars and cents a victory for optimists on China. In the very long term, it will grow; few deny that. But there are reasons to fear that the message about China’s latest credit-driven resurgence has been received just in time for that resurgence to peak and go into reverse.
这些数据实打实地证明了看好中国人士的胜利。从非常长的时期来说，中国经济将会增长，很少有人否认这一点。但人们有理由担心，刚刚收到有关中国最新由信贷驱动的复苏的信息，这种复苏就已经见顶并开始逆转。
And the ever more urgent questions of recent years remain unanswered. Can China avoid the “middle income trap”, which has seen many countries reach about China’s current level of wealth and then stall? And can it somehow avoid all previous precedents for growth on so wide and rapid a scale and avert a “sudden stop” or financial crisis at some point.
最近几年日益迫切的问题依然没有得到解答。中国能够避免“中等收入陷阱”吗？“中等收入陷阱”已使许多国家达到与中国当前相当的财富水平之后就停滞不前。它能以某种方式避免步所有那些如此快速而广泛增长国家的后尘，防止在某个时点发生“骤停”或金融危机吗？
The middle income trap is an acute one. Many countries have moved swiftly from being underdeveloped or poverty-stricken to gaining a middle income but in the last three decades only two countries with a population of more than 20m have managed to make the transition to “middle income”: Poland and South Korea.
中等收入陷阱是一个尖锐的问题。许多国家迅速从欠发达或贫穷国家转变为中等收入国家，但在最近的30年里，只有两个人口超过2000万的国家成功地走出中等收入陷阱——波兰和韩国。
Bulls suggest that China can get there. That was the central contention of a huge document Morgan Stanley published recently, with the unambiguous title “Why we are bullish on China”. If it can manage the transition from its current export-led economy to one built around domestic consumption, then the investment bank predicts that it can reach “high income” status by 2027, with average incomes rising from $8,100 now to $12,900.
看好中国的人认为，中国可以走出中等收入陷阱。这是摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最近发表的一份长篇报告的核心论点，该报告毫不含糊地以《我们为什么看好中国》(Why we are bullish on China)作为标题。这家投行预测，如果中国能够从当前的出口主导经济转向国内消费驱动型经济，那么它到2027年就能够成为“高收入”国家，人均收入从当前的8100美元增长至1.29万美元。
The greatest risks to its scenario include a return to trade protectionism and China’s demographic issues as its population begins to age.
这一预测面临的最大风险包括，贸易保护主义回归以及随着中国开始老龄化而出现的人口结构问题。
But can China avoid a financial “sudden stop”? China has pumped stimulus into its economy to a seemingly reckless degree. According to the New York Federal Reserve, the country accounts for half of all the new credit created in the world since 2005.
但中国能够避免金融“骤停”吗？中国出台的经济刺激方案达到了似乎不顾危险的程度。纽约联储(New York Federal Reserve)表示，在2005年以来的全球新增信贷中，中国占到了一半。
Symptoms of the imbalances that led to the Lehman debacle are already apparent: the most recent numbers on China’s housing market show new house price inflation running at 22.1 per cent over the past year in Beijing, and 21.1 per cent in Shanghai. And the $11tn market for “wealth management products” (WMPs), which invest in money markets to get a higher yield than on bank deposits, shows similarities to pre-Lehman financial engineering. Some WMPs invest in other WMPs, just as collateralised debt obligations used to invest in each other to create “CDOs squared”.
导致雷曼兄弟(Lehman)破产的那种失衡征兆已变得明显：有关中国房地产市场的最新数据显示，过去一年，北京新房价格上涨22.1%，上海上涨21.1%。规模达11万亿美元的理财产品市场显示出与雷曼破产前的“金融工程”的相似点。理财产品投资于货币市场，旨在获得高于银行存款的收益。一些理财产品投资于其他理财产品，就像用债务抵押债券(CDO)互相投资，制造出“二次CDO”。
How can China escape its own comeuppance? The bullish Morgan Stanley view is that its debt is being largely funded domestically (or in other words “China is mis-allocating its own excess saving”). It remains a creditor to the world with a current account surplus, and does not face inflationary pressures, so that the central bank will be able to continue to inject liquidity to “manage any potential risk aversion in the domestic financial system”.
更谨慎的观点来自牛津大学(Oxford university)中国中心(China Centre)的乔治•马格纳斯(George Magnus)。他指出，自2008年以来中国的金融体系已发生巨大变化，而且不健康。“金融体系资产（基本为贷款）已从GDP的大约250%增至2016年的440%。”
He adds that China’s “credit gap” (the deviation of credit growth away from its long-term trend) is, at 27 per cent, very high “compared with say, Japan, Thailand and Spain, which all opened up smaller gaps before they experienced financial crises, and subsequent deleveraging”.
他补充称，中国的“信贷扩张差额”（credit gap，信贷增速对长期趋势的偏离幅度）为27%，“与日本、泰国和西班牙等国相比”非常高，“这些国家在遭遇金融危机以及之后的去杠杆之前都出现了较小的信贷扩张差额。”
His sombre assessment is “the scale of the gap and the length of time it persists is positively associated with the onset of a serious financial crisis. The level of debt to GDP, variously estimated at between 260-300 per cent of GDP, the speed with which it has risen, and the eight or so years in which it has been continuing all make China a classic risk case for a fall.”
他的悲观看法是“信贷扩张差额的规模以及持续的时间与严重金融危机爆发是正相关的。中国债务与GDP之比（各种估计值介于260%至300%）、这个比率上升的速度以及8年左右的持续上升，都让中国变成了一个经典的危机风险案例。”
China is now evidently attempting to apply the brakes gently, which will in turn mean lower levels of activity and lower commodity prices, yet international money has started to arrive.
显然，中国现在正试图温和刹车，这进而将意味着经济活动减少和大宗商品价格下跌，但国际资金已开始到来。
China’s economic model is very different from that of the US, and it is buoyed by far stronger growth. The temptation to extrapolate directly from the western crisis of a decade ago should be avoided.
中国的经济模式与美国迥然不同，中国经济的增长强劲得多。应避免直接按照10年前西方的金融危机来推测中国。
But the similarities in the underlying dynamics are undeniable and no issue is more important for world markets than China’s effort to avoid a similar denouement. For now, Chinese growth is a fact that has lifted many other boats around the world.
但基本因素的相似性是不可否认的，对于全球市场而言，任何事情都没有中国努力避免类似结局重要。目前，中国的增长让全球很多其他地区水涨船高。
